ISLAMABAD, May 06, As Pakistan and India find themselves at the
brink of a nuclear war, a study warns that a nuclear conflict between
the two country could inject between 16.1 and 36.6 teragrams of black
carbon into the upper atmosphere, depending on the size and yield of the
weapons employed.
These soot particles would rise into the stratosphere, obstructing
sunlight and potentially leading to a “nuclear winter”.
This phenomenon could disrupt weather patterns and agricultural systems
worldwide for years, posing a severe threat to global food security and
climate stability, according to the study published in the Proceedings
of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS) on October 2, 2019.
The research, led by Jonas Jägermeyr of NASA’s Goddard Institute for
Space Studies and co-authored by 18 scientists from five countries,
explores the worldwide environmental consequences of a hypothetical
nuclear exchange in South Asia.
India and Pakistan, which have a long history of geopolitical
hostility—having fought four wars since their partition in 1947—each
possess over 150 nuclear warheads. Their most contentious issue remains
the disputed Kashmir region, a flashpoint that continues to fuel
tensions.
The PNAS study warns that even a limited regional conflict involving the
detonation of approximately 100 Hiroshima-sized bombs could have
far-reaching global effects. Agricultural yields for major crops such as
maize, wheat, rice, and soybeans could decline by an average of 11%
globally, with some nations experiencing losses exceeding 20%. The
Northern Hemisphere’s breadbasket regions—including North America,
Europe, Russia, and China—would be hardest hit.
According to Jägermeyr and coauthors, “Even this regional, limited war
would have devastating indirect implications worldwide.” The fallout
would be particularly dire for countries in the Global South, many of
which already rely heavily on food imports and are ill-equipped to
handle such shortages.
The study’s authors also caution that while the model assumes the use of
Hiroshima-sized bombs, future advancements in nuclear arsenals could
involve more powerful warheads, amplifying the climatic effects even
further. The black carbon produced could linger in the stratosphere for
up to a decade, prolonging the environmental disruption.
Deputy Director of the Stimson Center’s South Asia Program, Frank
O’Donnell, commented on the implications of the findings, highlighting
that “the persistent territorial dispute over Kashmir exacerbates the
nuclear threat, making a conflict between India and Pakistan an ongoing
risk.”
The research underscores the urgent need for international diplomacy and
nuclear disarmament, particularly in volatile regions. It also serves as
a stark reminder that nuclear warfare poses not only immediate
humanitarian disasters but also long-term global threats to climate
stability and food security